Africa has great potential for air services operators, seeking to establish new air routes.
In a recent podcast, AviaDev’s CEO Jon Howell discusses Airbus’ research on Africa’s unserved air routes with the report’s producer, Geert Lemaire.
Lemaire, Marketing Director of Market Intelligence and Analysis at Airbus discussed the report highlighting some of its details. He spent two years gathering data and producing an insightful report on Africa’s unserved air traffic routes.
The research entitled ‘Exploring the horizons: A study of unserved air routes to, from and within Africa’ takes a comprehensive look at unserved routes across the African continent.
The report was released at AviaDev Africa 2024 in Windhoek, Namibia in June. The latest AviaDev podcast covering this can be heard here.
SCREENING THE MARKET
Lemaire’s role at Airbus is to screen the market with respect to analysing developments regarding traffic, airline networks and emerging trends.
He analyses data to find opportunities for air operators to extend networks, launch new routes and identify fleet requirements for the future.
Airbus is then able to speak with air operators, to suggest opportunities and offer solutions for these.
FINDINGS FROM THE REPORT
The report found various categories of unserved routes to, from and within Africa.
These could be separated into routes that have never been served by nonstop flights as well as those that have previously been served but for some reason have been discontinued.
That said, a number of carriers have analysed the data and are exploring options to start up services on these routes.
UNSERVED AIR ROUTES IN AFRICA
The study revealed that the most attractive unserved routes are significantly concentrated in a few African cities.
Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar and Doula currently have multiple routes ranking amongst Africa’s top unserved routes.
The uppermost segment of Africa’s unserved routes are long-haul intercontinental flights to North America Europe and the Indian Subcontinent.
While unserved city pairs within Africa exist, they rank lower due to lower traffic numbers.
WEST AFRICA
West Africa sees the highest number of unserved routes.
Notably, nine of the 15 unserved routes identified in the study start or end in West Africa.
Hence, there is great potential to grow both passenger and cargo traffic in this region.
TOP UNSERVED AIR ROUTES IN AFRICA
The report lists the top inter-continental and intra-continental unserved routes as follows.
Intercontinental Routes:
Harare – London
Johannesburg – Mumbai
Lagos – New York
Lagos – Toronto
Entebbe – London
Lagos – Manchester
Cape Town – Brussels
Durban – London
Nairobi – Washington
Lagos – Houston
Intra-continental unserved routes:
Dakar – Libreville
Abidjan – Douala
Abuja – Nairobi
Cape Town – Lagos
Dakar – Douala
USING THE DATA
The valuable insight is indeed being used by a number of carriers who are considering the data.
Since the report, there have been announcements in the media, regarding the launch or the reinstatement of some of the routes on the list.
EMBRACING AIR ROUTE OPPORTUNITIES IN AFRICA
- Harare – London
Recent reports in the media state that Zimbabwe’s national carrier, Air Zimbabwe, is intent on resuming scheduled flights to the United Kingdom.
The airline previously operated flights between Harare and London Gatwick but it has in fact not done so for several years. The large number of Zimbabwe expats living in the United Kingdom is therefore expected to benefit from direct flights.
- Johannesburg – Mumbai
Reinstated flights between South Africa and India are also under discussion.
Airports Company South Africa (ACSA) CEO Mpumi Mpofu said in May this year that negotiations for a direct India – South Africa service were underway and that an announcement is expected by the end of 2024.
South Africa has historical cultural connections with India as a significant portion of South Africa’s population is of Indian descent. In addition, economic ties with India are strong, since South Africa is a member of the BRICS bloc.
South African Airways operated scheduled services between Johannesburg and Mumbai until a few years ago. However, South African Airways would consider restarting services on the route.
- Cape Town – Brussels
Flights between Cape Town and Brussels were operated for almost one year, before being axed. Air Belgium terminated its scheduled passenger flights into and out of South Africa on 3 October 2023.
In fact, these flights were the first direct links between South Africa and Belgium since the demise of Sabena Airlines in 2001. The carrier offered services between Brussels and Johannesburg, with tag-on flights to Cape Town.
Air Belgium discontinued its entire scheduled route network due to a deteriorating financial situation.
- Durban – London
With regards to the Durban – London Route, British Airways last offered services on the route in March 2021. It scrapped the route due to decreased passenger demand, impacted by Covid-19 restrictions.
British Airways has not reinstated the service but it offers connectivity through daily flights out of Johannesburg.
Travelling between Durban and London is possible when connecting through Dubai as well as Johannesburg.
- Entebbe – London
Uganda Airlines is planning to commence services between Entebbe and London. It hopes to launch scheduled flights into London Gatwick before the end of this year.
It will operate the route with an Airbus A330neo aircraft. The route has good potential given the number of Ugandan expats living in the United Kingdom.
Furthermore, Uganda Airlines is expanding its route network. The airline has also launched flights to three new destinations in Africa.
This month it added Abuja, Harare and Lusaka to its route network. These new destinations are in fact served with triangular flight routings.
